Page 7 - Covid management by Shajil Anthru
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International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology (IRJET)       e-ISSN: 2395-0056
                        Volume: 07 Issue: 05 | May 2020                                                                            p-ISSN: 2395-0072

               The long incubation time and apparent spreading of   comparison with reference for modifying the parameters in
         the virus before symptoms are experienced undoubtedly   control strategy. Here the output is Actual Number of Covid
         contribute to the relatively high RO values. This is because   Patients.  Input is the Zero Covid Patients.  Number of Covid
         infectious  people  continue  to  interact  with  others  and   patients detected by testing is compared with input. If the
         transmit the virus without knowing that they are doing so.    comparison  result  is  negative,  the  system  has  to  be
                                                               controlled as shown below.
               This lag in onset of symptoms corresponds to time
         delay  in  control  system  theory.  This  slag  introduces
         oscillations into closed-loop systems.
               In addition, there are very significant uncertainties.
                   1.       Testing process can cause inconsistency.
                   2.       The extent to which public complies with
                       policies is never 100 percent and may not
                       be   measurable.
                   3.   Health care capacity may vary for many
                                                                        Figure 2: Closed Loop Control System
        3. Covid Control in Kerala
                                                               3.2 Parameters to be controlled.
        Kerala is the southernmost state of India which fascinated
        the world with its remarkable achievement in public health.     The number of COVID patients can be brought down only by
        India  confirmed  the  first  coronavirus  case  in  Kerala  on   controlling certain parameters which affects in rising the
        January 30, 2020. Since then Kerala has been fighting the   COVID patients. The key parameters are
        pandemic in an exemplary manner. It was on this day when   1.  social distancing
        UN declare health emergency on coronavirus.  The activities   2.  the inflow of people from other locations
        of Kerala government and the state departments resulted in
        flattening the curve of covid cases on during the week April   3.3 On off Control strategy on COVID
        30 to May 5. Thousands of people from outside had returned   management
        to Kerala by various means of air, sea, road and rail. But,
        suddenly trends are indicting a rise in cases in Kerala. It is   On  off  approach  on  Social  distancing  measures:  Here
        because  we  have  unfamiliar  processes,  systems,    some restrictions are lifted when the number of fresh cases
        disturbances,  measuring  elements,  various  inputs  and   requiring intensive care is below a threshold and are put into
        various outputs.                                       place  when  it  exceeds  a  certain  number.    The  feedback
                                                               variable  in  this  case  is  the  number  of  COVID  patients  in
        3.1 Developing a Closed Loop Control System            hospitals.

                                                               On  off  approach  on  Inflow  of  people  into  the  state:
                                                               Restrictions on travel, too, can be variable. Full lockdown
                                                               limits  people  to  moving  within  the  boundaries  of  their
                                                               property. But as conditions improve, the officials may allow
                                                               people to move. People coming from affected areas need to
                                                               be controlled. The feedback variable is the number of COVID
                                                               patients in hospitals

                                                               3.4 CASE STUDY – KERALA

                 Figure -1 Closed Loop Control System          On March 9, 2020 the covid cases started increasing.  On
                                                               March 25, the state implement Lockdown. During the initial
                                                               phase of lockdown the cases rose in numbers and gradually
        Control  system  in  which  the  output  influences  the  input   got decreased. It showed a decrease or substantial nil cases
        quantity in such a manner that the input quantity will adjust   during the first week of May. May 6 is the demarcating point.
        itself based on the output generated is called closed loop   From  May  7,  inflow  of  outsiders  into  Kerala  started.
        control  system.  Open  loop  control  system  can  be   Subsequently, the covid cases grew in numbers.
        converted in to closed loop control system by providing a
        feedback. The covid pandemic which is an open loop system
        is  converted  into  a  closed  loop  system  by  testing  COVID
        positivity.  This  information  is  used  as  a  feedback  for

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